🔗 Share this article

Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple script. It commonly acts as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your team in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic improvement receives the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or merely the most shocking upset.

Yet the current race is distinctly different. The list of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with recent division champions falling away and longtime also-rans rising together. In an normal year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and fun year, he's facing several other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical vote could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to conjure big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a normal year, he would be the runaway favorite. But the current is not a normal campaign!

Where his case comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. But Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which was not a given following his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still